Mayor de Blasio looks easy to beat this fall, with only 39 percent of potential voters thinking he deserves re-election, according to a Quinnipiac poll.
But such polls can be deceptive. So here are some New Year’s resolutions for the half-dozen or so people who might put up a credible challenge in the September Democratic primary or the November general election.
Don’t be hysterical about crime. Under de Blasio, New York has kept crime down. This year, the city has had 330 murders as of Christmas. Over de Blasio’s first three years, we’ve had an average of 338 murders a year, 25 percent below the average of Bloomberg’s final term. That’s twice the rate by which Bloomberg himself cut murder in his first term.
New Yorkers worry about crime. But 48 percent of New Yorkers rightly approve of how the mayor has handled it, compared to 44 percent who don’t.
Anyone who runs a campaign claiming the streets run red with blood is either dumb or lying, and the voters will see right through it. Similarly, anyone who tries to say de Blasio isn’t responsible for his crime cuts, but that Giuliani and Bloomberg were responsible for theirs, will find herself in a rhetorical pickle.
Don’t coddle the elites. If the main way you campaign is to give speeches to real-estate groups or other business concerns, you’re not doing it right.
And don’t focus too much on de Blasio’s various corruption scandals. Don’t ignore it, either: voters care about corruption. But the dim reality is that prosecutors have always been the ones to ferret it out.