The Republican candidates will split 595 delegates in a dozen Super Tuesday primaries on March 1. If Trump were to continue at his present pace, he’d win a little more than 200 of them. But on March 15 the Florida and Ohio primaries alone will yield 165 delegates. If Trump or anyone else wins both these primaries, he would likely jump to the top of the delegate count no matter what happens on Super Tuesday and become a prohibitive favorite for the nomination.
How likely is that? Trump will face his three principal opponents in their home-state primaries in the next three weeks. In Texas, part of the Super Tuesday slate, Trump trails Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by 9.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average of polls.
In Ohio, the latest poll cited by RCP was released this week and showed Trump ahead of Ohio Gov. John Kasich by five points. Kasich has a high approval rating in his home state and could win the primary if he’s still part of the conversation by March 15.
Only in Florida among these three states does Trump have a solid lead in the RCP averages, by more than 20 points against Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
It’s hard to see how Cruz, Kasich or Rubio could continue if they can’t even win their home states. If Trump wins only two of the three, the Republican race could become a two-man affair with more than a third of the delegates remaining to be chosen. It will be interesting to see if Trump can win then.