Surprise: California Numbers Missing From Rosy Jobless Report

Posted by on Oct 11, 2012 at 1:37 pm

The media has been gushing all day over these, er, wonderful numbers, in another pathetic attempt to prop up the fading hopes of the failed president.

Just one huge problem.

  • It is likely that some of the jobless claims in one large state–California–were not included in the claims reported to the Department of Labor this week.  This happens occasionally, our source says. When a state’s jobless claims bureau is short-staffed, sometimes the state does not process all of the claims that came in during the week in time to get them to the DOL. The source believes that this is what happened this week.
  • The California claims that were not processed in time to get into this week’s jobless report will appear in future reports, most likely next week’s or the following week’s. In other words, those reports might be modestly higher than expected.
  • The source believes that the number of California claims that were not processed totalled about 15,000-25,000. Thus, if one were to “normalize” the overall not-seasonally-adjusted jobless claims number, it would increase by about 15,000-25,000.
  • This week’s “normalized” jobless claims number, therefore, would be about 355,000-365,000, not the 339,000 that was reported. This compares to the 370,000 consensus expectation.

In other words, had all of California’s jobless claims been processed in time to make the jobless-claims release, this jobless number would still have been better than economists were expecting–but not as much better as it appeared.

Of course the bogus numbers will likely continue to be reported. Heck, Joe Biden will probably even cite them tonight. Who wouldn’t he? It’s not as if this administration wouldn’t continue to lie when they know the truth (see: Benghazi).

2 Responses to “Surprise: California Numbers Missing From Rosy Jobless Report”

  1. Decaf on 12/12/12 at 8:15 pm

    They’ll discover their journalistic integrity as soon as Romney is the president. See, Romney will even improve the media.