Obama’s 12-Point Lead in PA Down to Four in New Poll With D+8 Sample

Posted by on Oct 16, 2012 at 7:49 am
obamasweat

A source tells us Team Romney still has no plans to contest in Pennsylvania, but if Mitt Romney again wins big tonight, why not pour some resources in there just to make Obama defend it? Obama’s firewall is Philadelphia and suburbs, not to mention his goons from the Black Panthers to enforce the votes in Philly, but the rest of the state is sure to go red.

Gov. Mitt Romney has narrowed a 12-point gap with President Barack Obama and now trails the president 50 – 46 percent among Pennsylvania likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 54 – 42 percent Obama lead in a September 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac   University.

In today’s survey, men back Romney 54 – 43 percent, compared to a 49 – 48 percent split September 26. Women back Obama 57 – 39 percent, little changed from last month. White voters back Romney 53 – 43 percent while black voters back Obama 97 – 1 percent.

97-1? Seriously? Nah, nothing to do with race, not at all.

White Catholic voters go Republican 56 – 43 percent. Voters with college degrees back the president 54 – 43 percent while voters without degrees are divided with 49 percent for Obama and 47 percent for Romney.

Only 7 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters say they might change their mind in the next 21 days.

“Gov. Mitt Romney is coming on strong in the Keystone State, especially among white Catholics,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Pennsylvania voters say Vice President Joseph Biden, a native son and a Catholic, won the debate and is more qualified than U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan to be president. But that doesn’t seem to be lifting the top of the ticket.”

Incumbent Democrat Sen. Bob Casey has also seen a sizable lead disappear and his race against Tom Smith is now seen as too close to call.

The sample, available at the bottom of the link, is 39D/31R/26I. A friend from the western part of the state (Pittsburgh area), says he’s seen Obama commercials running already. It would makes some sense for Romney to contest at this point if only to force Obama to spend more to shore up what a month ago was seen as a slam dunk.

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3 Responses to “Obama’s 12-Point Lead in PA Down to Four in New Poll With D+8 Sample”

  1. Blue Hen on 16/16/12 at 9:30 am

    Anyone know why the supposed word from the campaign is that he’s not contesting PA? Is it because they don’t want to set their sights unless they know they have a good chance (setting expectations)?

  2. mike mallon on 16/16/12 at 11:38 am

    I live in chester county Pa., one of the 5 surrounding suburbs of Philadelphia. I have a job, I know I’m one of the lucky ones, that takes me all over this area. In 2008 this place was carpeted with obama biden yard signs. And I mean carpeted , made me sick. This time hardly any signs anywhere. More romney ryan than Oblamebush. Don’t know what it means but I think he will lose all five counties. If he does he loses Pa! Even with the shenanigans in Philly.

  3. HarryL on 16/16/12 at 1:06 pm

    I can second mike mallon. I’m in Montgomery county which borders Philly & Chester counties. While there are still “some” Obama yard signs around there are many more Romney signs.
    FYI: My son is at Elizabethtown College – just yesterday Ann Romney was there hosting a rally with Tom Smith, candidate for Casey’s senate seat. Romney hasn’t totally abandoned PA yet.