NY Times/CBS Poll Now Includes Wisconsin As Swing State

Posted by on Oct 11, 2012 at 7:50 am

Since when has Wisconsin been considered a swing state? This entire election cycle we’ve been told the main swing states that will decide the presidential election are Ohio, Virginia and Florida. In fact a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released today has those three as swing states.

A week after President Barack Obama’s lackluster debate performance, Republican challenger Mitt Romney has made some gains in three key swing states among those most likely to vote, according to the latest round of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.

Romney and Obama remain in a virtual tie in Virginia and Florida, and the Democratic incumbent maintains a slight advantage in Ohio.

Romney saw his largest gain in Virginia, where he now edges the president 48 percent to 47 percent, a 3-point reversal from last week’s poll, released the day of the first presidential debate. The spread is within the poll’s margin of error.

In Florida, before the debate, it was a 1-point race with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent. Now, it is still a 1-point race with Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent.

Romney has gained in Ohio according to this one, yet absurdly they have a D+11 sample margin. How ridiculous is that?

In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats — 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats.  . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

So in one week they added an extra 6% Democrats and Obama lost ground? The breakdown is here once you’re done laughing.

Now, however, the new Qunnipiac poll no longer has either Ohio or Florida as swing states, replaced by Colorado and Wisconsin, which hasn’t gone GOP since 1984.

Mitt Romney is seen by more voters in three battleground states as a strong leader after his dominant debate performance last week, but perceptions that the economy is improving remain a buttress for President Obama as the 2012 campaign comes down to its final weeks.

The latest Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll, of likely voters in the three states, Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin, found no sharp movement after the debate and the news last Friday that the unemployment rate in September had dropped below 8 percent for the first time since Mr. Obama took office.

But the poll suggested that Mr. Romney had gained strength in a number of ways since last month and that Mr. Obama’s best defense is the somewhat brighter economic outlook and the fact that voters continue to relate to him more than they do to his opponent.

Mr. Romney’s backers now support him more fervently than before. He is running stronger in particular among those who say they are paying especially close attention to the race. He retains his dominance on the issue of handling the federal budget deficit and seems to have stabilized his showing on handling of the economy.

About two-thirds of the voters in each state said Mr. Romney has strong leadership qualities, more than said the same of the president.

The breakdowns are here. They have Wisconsin 31D/27R/37I, Colorado 27D/29R/39I and Virginia 31D/28R/35I.  Romney trails by only three points in Wisconsin, by five in Virginia and leads by a point in Colorado. So Virginia’s a split in these two polls, and Romney gains ground in Ohio in the Marist poll with the ridiculous D+11 sample.

Advantage Romney.


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