Numbers adding up to Mitt’s advantage

Posted by on Apr 13, 2012 at 8:29 am

Recent polls in these 11 states show Obama ahead in every state but Iowa. But they also show him topping 50 percent only in Wisconsin.

Obama seems to be running slightly better than last time in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, and slightly weaker in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Iowa, and about the same in Virginia, Colorado and Nevada, with no recent polling in New Hampshire.

Obama has not sewn up any of these 11 states, which have 144 electoral votes. Without them, and without the 11 in Indiana and one in Nebraska he carried last time, he would have only 205 electoral votes, 65 short.

The president has been reduced to trash-talking the Supreme Court and playing up the Buffett rule, a tax proposal raising capital gains rates on very high earners that would net little revenue.

That’s not the behavior of a confident incumbent.

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