Everyone knows Obama’s going to win, so why does this poll now show a dead heat?
After a challenging period for Romney, registered voters by 63-31 percent expect Obama to win re-election, his widest advantage in expectations in ABC News/Washington Post polls to date. A year ago, in sharp contrast, Americans by an 18-point margin thought he’d lose.
Potential voters by a similar 56-29 percent also expect Obama to win the debates beginning Wednesday night in Denver – a result that ratchets up the pressure on the president to perform, leaving Romney, whatever his difficulties, greater opportunity to exceed expectations.
The contest between them, regardless, is far closer than those prognostications would suggest. Registered voters in this survey, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, divide by 49-44 percent between Obama and Romney, with the race a virtual tie, 49-47 percent, among those most likely to vote.
Indeed the ABC News main page pushes this story as Majority Think Obama Will Win Debates, Election. So how can this be after all these so-called disastrous weeks for Romney? This may be an indicator:
Results such as these keep Romney in the hunt. He leads by nearly 50 points, for instance, among registered voters who say the country’s headed off on the wrong track, by 72 points among those who rate Obama’s economic performance negatively, by 43 points among those who question the effect of government programs for the poor and by nearly 60 points among those who are “very” worried about the economy’s direction.
This poll doesn’t show the breakdown but if it’s like any other “mainstream” media outlet it’s weighted heavily toward Democrats. If that indeed is the case Obama is in deep trouble.
Meanwhile, a Politico poll also shows nearly identical numbers. They’re also hiding the sample breakdown. I wonder why?
Via Jim Geraghty.