Great Predictions in Media History: ‘Sandy unlikely to damage US economy, analysts say’

Posted by on Oct 30, 2012 at 6:17 pm

This was from the Associated Press Monday.

Hurricane Sandy took dead aim at New Jersey and Delaware on Monday, with sheets of rain and wind gusts of more than 90 mph knocking out electricity and causing major disruptions for companies, travelers and consumers. But for the overall economy, damage from the storm will likely be limited. And any economic growth lost to the storm in the short run will likely be restored once reconstruction begins, analysts say. Americans may even spend more before the storm when they stock up on extra food, water and batteries.

Preliminary estimates are that damage will range between $10 billion and $20 billion. That could top last year’s Hurricane Irene, which cost $15.8 billion. If so, Hurricane Sandy would be among the 10 most costly hurricanes in U.S. history. But it would still be far below the worst – Hurricane Katrina, which cost $108 billion and caused 1,200 deaths in 2005.

“Assuming the storm simply disrupts things for a few days and it doesn’t do significant damage to infrastructure, then I don’t think it will have a significant national impact,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said Monday.

Bet they’re love to walk that back now.

Sandy will end up causing about $20 billion in property damage and $10 billion to $30 billion more in lost business, making it one of the costliest natural disasters on record in the U.S., according to IHS Global Insight, a forecasting firm.

And that’s preliminary at this point. But hey, what’s $30 billion here or there when you’re making predictions?

One Response to “Great Predictions in Media History: ‘Sandy unlikely to damage US economy, analysts say’”

  1. Esau's Message on 30/30/12 at 7:10 pm

    This is astoundingly stupid. Natural disasters result in a pure, unmitigated dead weight loss to national wealth. Wealth that must be rebuilt, replaced, repaired. That represents a lost opportunity to spend those same resources on something else equally or more productive.